Agroclimatic requirements and adaptation potential to global warming of Spanish cultivars of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.)

Traditional fruit tree cultivars are an important source of agricultural biodiversity. These genotypes well adapted to the regions where they grow, and their fruits offer distinctive features compared commercial that frequently grown. We analyzed adaptation prospects seven sweet cherry grown in Zaragoza (Spain) future climate conditions. first delineated chilling forcing phases using Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression correlate phenology records with daily accumulations chill heat during months preceding flowering. then calculated requirements three models (Chilling Hours, Utah Dynamic) one model (Growing Degree GDH). Results indicated ranged between 26.1 60.2 CP (chill portions) from 5473 8030 GDH, respectively. assessed cultivars’ potential adapt a warmer projections comparing expected accumulation under two global warming scenarios, RCP4.5 (effective reduction greenhouse gas emissions) RCP8.5 (very high emissions), by time horizons, 2050 2085, temperature fifteen Global Climate Models (GCM). established has consistently decreased over last 30 years, but temperate trees have shown regular breaking dormancy, bud burst blooming. Future levels continue decreasing given sustained trend, so there is no guarantee sufficient winter will be observed medium long term if trend continues. For out we analyzed, most predict or low risks 2085 scenario. Under scenario, particularly end 21st century (i.e. 2085), four needs not meet very often.